金吾财讯 | 中金公司发研报指，航空行业供需格局持续优化，油价下跌大幅缓解成本压力，行业竞争优化和供需趋紧或导致票价延续1H25改善趋势，行业盈利水平同比大幅提升。该机构看好航空股2025年下半年业绩改善带来的投资机会，而更为持久的航空向上周期或正在始于当下。该机构预计未来三年全行业有效机队数量年均复合增速1.5%左右，需求端旅客周转量年化增速有望达到6%以上，再加上国际航班持续恢复国内运力转出，行业供需差缩小甚至扭转为供不应求，客座率提升、票价上涨，行业盈利或将大幅改善。油价震荡下跌，有望带动盈利水平大幅改善：2025年以来国际油价震荡回落，此外特朗普上台后美元走弱，人民币汇率贬值压力减小。该机构认为外部环境正朝着有利于航空股降本的方向发展，对航空公司利润改善作用较大。
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