花旗发表研究报告，阿里巴巴(09988.HK) (BABA.US) 将于下月公布2026财年首季业绩，由于战略性合并饿了么与飞猪至中国电商业务，并加大补贴力度以推动交叉销售协同效应，集团整体及淘天集团(TTG)EBITA将分别按年下跌15%及18%。
花旗指，随着消费者转向要求更广泛品类的快速配送服务，加上线上线下零售融合，即时零售及快商务已成为电商平台争夺核心市占率的关键战场。考虑到阿里在未来12个月潜在投资规模达到500亿元人民币，花旗下调淘天集团及整体EBITA预测，目前预计2026财年淘天及整体EBITA将分别按年下降18%及11%。
相应地该行将阿里目标价下调至144元，维持“买入”评级，开展30日短期负面观察，预期持续的市场竞争及投资将进一步压制盈利前景，除非AI及云业务出现重估，否则股价短期或受压。(gc/j)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-07-10 16:25。) (美股为即时串流报价； OTC市场股票除外，资料延迟最少15分钟。)
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