金吾财讯 | 华泰证券点评6月通胀数据，6月CPI同比较5月的-0.1%回升至0.1%，其中油价变动对CPI同比的拖累收窄约0.1个百分点，翘尾因素变动对CPI同比约有0.2个百分点的提振。剔除食品及能源价格后、与内需更为相关的核心CPI同比较5月的0.6%进一步上行至0.7%，环比略高于季节性水平。PPI同比降幅走阔至3.6%，主要受煤炭价格降幅走阔的影响，或显示此前油价下行的影响仍在传导，煤炭开采及加工/黑色冶炼/水泥等行业合计拖累6月PPI环比降幅共0.33个百分点，贡献6月PPI环比降幅超8成，出口链相关行业（电子、电气机械、纺织等）价格亦小幅走弱，或显示对等关税的影响有所显现，而汽车或受益于供需关系改善，价格环比止跌回升、同比降幅亦收窄。往前看，油价企稳反弹的影响有望逐步传导至相关产业链，对能源价格形成支撑，同时，7月以来中央财经委、工信部等再次提及治理企业低价无序竞争，光伏、锂电池、汽车、钢铁等行业“反内卷”政策预期升温、部分商品价格亦有所回暖。此外，24年下半年PPI的低基数亦可能对今年下半年PPI同比读数形成提振。此外，考虑到7月以来高温及较多降雨的影响延续，或对食品价格形成支撑，暑期出行活动活跃或有望推动CPI同比温和改善。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.