国信证券发布研报称,截至2024年,古茗(01364)是国内规模第二大的现制茶饮品牌,仅次于蜜雪集团(02097)。该行认为公司基本面稳固,增长点包括单店商品交易总额(GMV)改善及门店扩张。首次覆盖予“优于大市”评级。
该行预期2025、26及27年,古茗门店将分别净增2100、2350及2450间;并估计成熟加盟店年均GMV约为234万元人民币,净利润率19.1%,新店回本周期约为16.5月,平台补贴助力加上推出新品类等驱动,预计2025、26及27年单店GMV分别同比增8.5%、4.5%及3.8%。该行亦预计古茗2025、26及27年的经调整归母净利润为20.1亿、25.2亿及30.8亿元人民币,同比增加30.1%、25.6%及22.2%。
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