如何看待本轮商品价格上涨?

华尔街见闻
11 Jul

基本结论 ◾ 近期“反内卷”行情点燃商品市场热度。市场或许可以理解为政策预期与市场情绪驱动的反弹。然而仔细分析,本轮上涨行情之中存在几个疑点。 疑点之一:上涨持续时间长、幅度高,已不能简单视作反弹。在趋势性行情下,价格反弹通常持续时间短、幅度低。然而本轮商品反弹已经持续了一个月,幅度也有些超预期,收复了关税日以来跌幅的近5成。技术面已不能被视作短期反弹,反而更像行情反转。 疑点之二:上涨看似由偶然...

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