金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，25年6月末CCPI-原油价差约558，处于2012年以来30%以下分位数，月中受地缘局势紧张影响原油价格短暂冲高，行业价差环比有所收窄。6月提价产品主要系成品油与甲醇等受地缘冲突影响影响较大的品种。该机构认为若前期地缘冲突因素逐步缓和，中下游化工品盈利空间有望得到释放。短期而言，7月9日 “对等关税”豁免期后关税政策仍有不确定性，但伴随内需修复叠加亚非拉等地区需求增长，终端需求有望逐步迎来改善；供给端行业资本开支增速已回落至较低水平，供给侧自我调整下25H2或迎复苏起点，成本减压及需求改善的下游环节或率先复苏。
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