华创证券研报指出，燕京啤酒预计上半年实现归母净利润10.6~11.4亿元，同增约40%~50%；扣非净利润9.3~10.0亿元，同增约25%~35%。测算单Q2预计实现归母净利润9.0~9.7亿元，同增约36.7%-48.3%；扣非归母净利润7.7~8.5亿元，同增约21.1%~32.7%。归母与扣非归母净利均超预期。根据预告测算，公司单Q2扣非归母净利润预计同增21.1%~32.7%，考虑当前结构提升与成本优化同步推进，判断实际业绩或接近预告上限。公司二季度业绩高增兑现，超出市场预期，打破前期担忧。当前政策影响逐步消除，餐饮预计持续修复，量增有望改善。同时大单品U8持续放量改善产品结构，叠加成本费用持续优化，公司改革成效持续显现，利润弹性有望持续释放。结合中报业绩预告，调整提高25-27年EPS预测为0.55/0.66/0.76元（前值0.51/0.62/0.72元），维持25年目标价15.5元，维持“强推”评级。
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