金吾财讯 | 交银国际发研报指，预计2025年2季度京东(09618)收入同比增15%至3350亿元（人民币，下同），对比一致预期的3327亿元基本一致，调整后净利润为48.8亿元，同比下降66%，一致预期为89亿元。预计2季度零售收入同比增14%，带电及日百均保持双位数增长，预计零售运营利润同比增16%至117亿元，对应利润率同比持平，因去年同期投入较为审慎。预计新业务2季度亏损约100亿元，按平均1100万日单计算，单均亏损约为10元。
该机构预计3季度外卖单均亏损通过提升补贴效率和优化骑手调度效率而逐步缩窄，但相较2季度单量爬坡的阶段，UE改善不足以弥补单量规模扩大，将导致亏损金额进一步扩大，但有望在4季度看到外卖亏损金额的缩窄。公司外卖业务以实现零售交叉销售为长期目标，QM数据显示4-6月京东APPMAU实现30-40%同比增长，交叉销售数据逐月提升，预计后续通过运营转化或带来更多交叉销售机会。
该机构下调2025年利润预测至260亿元人民币，目标价从50美元/194港元下调至40美元/164港元，对应零售2025年10倍市盈率（现价对应8倍），当前为估值底部，外卖UE有收窄趋势，零售稳健，维持买入评级。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.