【券商聚焦】交银国际维持京东物流(02618)买入评级 料次季总收入同比增11.6%

金吾财讯
Jul 15

金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示,预计京东物流(02618)2025年2季度总收入同比增11.6%至493.3亿元(人民币,下同),略好于该机构此前预期。预计内外部收入均保持双位数增长,内单受益于集团零售业务增长推动同比增速较1季度进一步加速,外部一体化延续1季度改善的趋势实现客户数增长以及单客收入缺口的进一步收窄,快递快运在审慎价格策略下实现接近行业的增长并拓展更多产业带客户。淘宝系统接入带动供应链客户在家电、服饰品类的进一步渗透,以及快递业务在高质量客户的拓展,实现快速增长。预计调整后净利润同比增4.5%至25.7亿元,与该机构的预期基本一致,对应净利润率为5.2%,同比下降35个基点,主要因人员及运输资源投入对毛利润率产生影响。该机构微调全年预测,预计2025年收入/调整后净利润同比增10.7%/4.9%。公司6月24日公告宣布,京东物流将负责京东集团全职外卖骑手管理及配送服务,并在长期寻求协同效应和运营效率的提升,该机构认为和集团结算按照成本价核算,对短期利润影响有限。预计2季度财务影响较小,该机构按照下半年京东外卖1500-2500万日均单量以及全职骑手承担30-50%配送比例估算,对2025年收入影响2-8%,尚未反映在当前预测中。维持目标价18.50港元及买入评级。

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