金吾财讯 | 阿里巴巴(09988)午后发力走高，截至发稿，涨6.31%，报112.8港元，成交额125.37亿港元。同为外卖龙头的美团(03690)亦同步上行，涨4.14%，报125.9港元，成交额70.13亿港元；京东(09618)涨势稍逊，涨1.31%，报124港元，成交额14.95亿港元。据晚点LatePost报道，淘宝闪购原本并未计划在上周六继续大力补贴冲单，美团也只希望维持1亿单的规模，但当日傍晚，美团监测到淘宝闪购发出新一批“16-16”“25-18”外卖红包，以为淘宝闪购正在发起大规模攻势。为了防止双方差距缩小，美团迅速发布了不限量的大额满减券迎战，以数千万订单淹没全国的奶茶店。有阿里员工说，行业变化太快，补贴频率目前以周为单位实时调整。阿里创始人马云在上周六、日要求淘宝闪购“稳定在8000万单”，先提升能力，巩固好基础，再往上冲。国信证券指出，公司短期加大即时零售布局对利润端造成压力，但长期来看有利于电商用户粘性和购买频次提升，重塑淘宝用户心智。该机构小幅调整公司FY2026-FY2028收入预测至10623/11490/12174亿元，调整幅度为+1.0%/+2.2%/+0.8%，主要考虑闪购业务单量快速增长带来的收入增加；调整公司FY2026-FY2028经调净利预测至1388/1718/1954亿元，调整幅度为-16.8%/-5.7%/-2.9%，主要反映闪购投入力度加大对利润端带来的负面影响。目前公司对应FY2026年PE为13倍，继续维持“优于大市”评级。
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