Breakfast News: E.U. Tariffs Spark Concern

Source: Image Created by Jester AI.

1. E.U. Delays Action as Trade Tensions Rise

S&P 500 futures contracts fell over 0.5% on fears over the 30% tariffs President Donald Trump placed on the E.U. and Mexico. However, the losses have been cushioned by the E.U. delaying implementing retaliatory measures in the pursuit of a deal.

• ″We have always been clear that we prefer a negotiated solution.″ E.U. President Ursula von der Leyen said now was the time for negotiations, with a couple of weeks left before the Aug. 1 deadline.
• "We will continue to prepare further countermeasures so we are fully prepared." Should talks not result in a deal, the current list of countermeasures would hit $24.5 billion worth of U.S. goods, with a further $61.5 billion pending, as well as export controls.

2. Earnings to Watch This Week

Stock Advisor recommendation Netflix (NFLX 1.01%) is set to report quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday. Analysts expect accelerated growth in ad-supported subscriptions.

• Beating analyst earnings projections for the past four quarters: Hidden Gems rec Prologis (PLD 0.05%) will release earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell. Consensus is for a 5.2% increase in earnings and a 7.9% jump in revenue from the same quarter last year.
• Indications of a continued AI spending boom: Before the market opens on Thursday, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM -1.27%) will put out Q2 earnings, with a revenue forecast of $29.47 billion. If met, it would mark an impressive 35.6% increase from last year.

3. Markets Eye Inflation Amid Rate Cut Shift

The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading is due out Tuesday, with expectations of a rise from the 2.4% last month to 2.6%. This would mark the highest reading since February and cause investors to rethink the timing of the next rate cut.

• Consumer sentiment set to improve: Thursday sees retail sales data for June released, where a consensus flat reading of 0% would mark a sharp improvement from May's -0.9%. The preliminary July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is also set to beat the June results.
• Probability of a 25 basis point July rate cut at 6.7% versus 23% a month ago: Strong labor market data and concerns around the inflationary impact of tariffs mean the U.S. Federal Reserve is less likely to commit to an imminent interest rate cut, as data from the CME FedWatch tool shows.

4. Bitcoin Powers Above $122,000

Bitcoin (BTC 2.54%) hit a fresh all-time high at $122,600 as record exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and positive chatter around new crypto bills add fuel to the fire for the industry.

• Policy supported by President Donald Trump: The U.S. House of Representatives will begin deliberating bills on Monday, including the Genius Act, which aims to provide a clearer regulatory framework for the sector.
• "We believe that Bitcoin's surge is driven by longer-term institutional buyers." Jeff Mei, the chief operating officer at BTSE, pointed to sophisticated investors driving the price higher, with Bitcoin ETFs logging the largest day of inflows this year, at $1.18 billion on Thursday.

5. Your Take

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