The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1929 ET - Power negotiations at South32's Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique are worth keeping a close eye on given it would cost more than US$200 million to shut down and restart the operation, Morgan Stanley analyst Rahul Anand says in a note. Yet similar negotiations around the world--including in New Zealand and Australia--have resulted in last-minute deals to protect jobs, says Anand. The smelter contributes roughly 4% of Mozambique's GDP, and creates thousands of direct and indirect jobs, he says. "We also note S32 has been trading below fair value (base case: A$3.95/share) as the market has been watching this key risk that has previously been flagged by the Mozambique government." MS has an "overweight" rating and A$3.05/share target on South32. The stock ended Monday down 5.1%, at A$2.95. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

1511 ET - Oil futures fall as the market makes light of President Trump's threat of tariffs on Russia and countries that trade with Russia if a deal with Ukraine isn't reached in 50 days. The negative price reaction could be partly because the 50-day deadline "maintains the possibility that the oil market will avoid any disruption," Kieran Tompkins and Liam Peach of Capital Economics say in a note. The extent to which Trump will follow through on the threat remains a question given his preference for lower oil prices, although "targeting the exports of one of the world's largest energy producers would have important ramifications in energy markets," they say. The impact would probably be greater on natural gas than oil, "depending on to what extent OPEC+ would step in and plug the shortfall in oil supply." WTI settles down2.1% at $66.98 a barrel, and Brent falls 1.6% to 69.21 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1458 ET - U.S. natural gas futures post solid gains after weather forecasts over the weekend called for hotter weather, and flows to LNG export terminals continue to rise. "Despite a messy pattern with numerous areas of showers and thunderstorms the next four days, national demand will be decently strong as highs of upper 80s to 100s rule most of the U.S.," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. Gas storage above 3 trillion cubic feet with several months of the injection season still to go remains a bearish consideration, the forecaster adds. Nymex natural gas settles up 4.6% at $3.466/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1259 ET - Goldman Sachs raises its crude oil price estimates for the second half of the year as the market shifts focus from recession worries to possible supply disruptions, low OECD stocks, a rapid decline in perceived spare capacity and concerns about Russian production constraints. The firm raises its 2H25 Brent forecast by $5 to $66 a barrel, and for WTI to $63 from $57 a barrel. Goldman analysts keep their 2026 price forecast at $56 a barrel for Brent and $52 for WTI, reflecting "an offset between a boost from higher long-dated prices and a hit from a wider 1.7 million barrels a day surplus," compared with its previous surplus estimate of 1.5 million barrels a day. "Reduced spare capacity increases our confidence that prices will rebound after 2026," they add.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1227 ET - Oil prices extend losses in afternoon trade as traders weigh the latest U.S.-EU trade developments and President Trump's sanction threats against Russia. Brent crude falls 1.2% to $69.49 a barrel, while WTI is down 1.7% to $67.31 a barrel. President Trump said he would impose tariffs of up to 100% on Russia if the Kremlin doesn't agree to halt hostilities in Ukraine within 50 days. The levies would be in the form of secondary tariffs, but the President didn't elaborate further. Separately, the EU plans to hold off on retaliatory tariffs for now, with the bloc's top trade commissioner saying he intended to speak with his U.S. counterparts. Trump said in a press conference earlier on Monday that the U.S. is open to trade talks with Europe. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1035 ET - The large U.S. crude oil stock builds of recent weeks, coupled with low crude exports, are likely to reverse in coming weeks as WTI prices become relatively cheap compared with international benchmarks, John Coleman of Sparta Commodities says in a note. The last two EIA reports showing around 11 million barrels in stock builds and exports under 3 million barrels a day suggest weak demand for U.S. barrels in the global market, he says. But "our signals dashboard is flashing green across the board for WTI exports, with arbitrage windows opening wide into both European and Asian destinations." WTI for September delivery is down 0.4% at $66.79 a barrel versus Brent off 0.2% at $70.20 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1032 ET - President Trump's 50% tariff threat on imports from Brazil has triggered a rotation into commodity names in Brazilian stocks, but investors should be careful, UBS BB analysts write. They say some commodities stocks won't beat fixed-income options, given Brazil's high interest rates. They expect trade wars to weaken commodity prices globally in the 2H. "We favor a selective approach to build investors' underweight commodity positions." UBS BB recommends oil companies Prio and Petrobras, pulp-and-paper Suzano and steelmaker Gerdau. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1022 ET - The European warehouse automation industry shows signs of reaching a positive turning point, Barclays analysts say in a note. Kion's likely strong order intake for supply chain solutions in the second quarter is evidence of this recovery, the analysts say. Progress, however, could still be uneven and momentum has yet to flow into smaller players like Jungheinrich and AutoStore, the analysts say. Demand for forklifts is stable and a relatively resilient European market will help offset order uncertainty in other regions, they add. Kion shares trade 2.4% lower at 52.5 euros. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)

0930 ET - Oil futures are gaining, but off earlier highs with the market expecting a statement from President Trump on Russia. Expectations that it could include tightened sanctions sent Brent above $71 a barrel in earlier trade. But "not a lot of these sanctions have had a major effect on oil flows and I don't know why they would change now," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. "Sending arms via NATO would increase tensions between the U.S./NATO and Russia, but I struggle to see a significant change to oil supply." WTI is up 0.5% at $68.78 a barrel, and Brent is up 0.5% at $70.74. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0909 ET - Natural gas futures start the week higher on signs of tightening in the market. Positive catalysts at the end of last week included ebbing production, higher LNG feedgas flows, a recovery in implied weather-driven demand and a bullish storage number, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "Natural gas is at a fundamental inflection point as core supply/demand balances begin a tightening cycle," he says. But weak Henry Hub spot market prices and a rising storage surplus to five-year averages "may question durability of any rebound." Nymex natural gas is up 2.3% at $3.394/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0809 ET - High-voltage cable demand far outpaces expected supply growth, implying a further backlog extension, Barclays analysts say in a research note. This should in turn enhance European cable players' pricing power and drive up margins, they say. The analysts forecast a compound annual growth rate of 16% for high-voltage cable demand, outmatching the expected supply growth of 8%, over 2020 to 2030, the analysts say. Given this more positive view on demand and margins, both Milan-based Prysmian and French Nexans look best positioned to ride this super-cycle, the analysts say. They see sector-leading margin levels by the end of the decade for Prysmian. Prysmian shares trade 0.7% lower at 60.66 euros. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)

0651 ET - Oil prices extend gains in midday trade, with Brent crude climbing above $71 a barrel driven by prospects of potential U.S. sanctions on Russia and China's higher oil imports in June. The international oil benchmark rises 1.5% to $71.42 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge WTI gains 1.6% to $69.53 a barrel. President Trump is due a "major statement" on Russia later on Monday after criticizing Russian leader Vladimir Putin and announcing the U.S. will send Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine. In China, the latest trade figures showed exports regained momentum last month following a tariff truce with the U.S. Meanwhile, intensifying global trade tensions are weighing on the U.S. dollar, making oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 14, 2025 19:29 ET (23:29 GMT)

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