金吾财讯 | 中信证券预计2Q25鞋服消费整体稳健增长，其中各主要国产运动品牌Q2流水端有望实现个位数正增长。考虑宏观消费预期正处于逐步修复路径中，该机构预计品牌服饰整体将延续企稳复苏态势，建议跟踪各品牌销售及指引达成情况。同时，受益运动习惯及消费场景变化，户外、小众细分运动品牌等部分高景气细分赛道料将持续引领增长；纺织制造板块中，近期关税方案的一系列进展释放积极信号，有望改善市场对后续关税不确定性的顾虑，且该机构预计后续关税税率难以回到极端水平。从更长期视角看，亚洲作为纺服主要出口地，难以被替代，头部代工厂在越南本地供应链布局、产能与利润率上具备更强的抗风险能力。若后续品牌与代工厂进行关税分摊，有望采取“以量换价”方案，该机构看好头部代工厂&原材料公司长期经营韧性。
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