金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，6月工业和服务业生产均保持较快增长，受中美贸易摩擦缓和影响外需景气度有所回升，但内需指标小幅下滑。从生产端来看，美国出口订单回流推动6月工业生产超预期，服务业生产指数也保持在较高水平。从需求侧来看，6月投资增速显著低于市场预期，其中制造业投资与市场预期的偏离程度最高。由于“618购物节”预售活动对后续消费存在一定透支，今年6月社零增速有所下滑，低于市场预期。向后看，下半年出口抢运热度可能进一步降温，同时需要密切关注居民消费韧性的变化。6月24日，央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，政策性金融工具也有望在不久后落地，从而有效提振内需对冲外部压力的影响。
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