金吾财讯 | 摩根大通最新研报指出，美国通胀动态正面临关键转折点。一方面美国实际加征关税已悄然从年初的2.3%升至约13%，若后续行业性关税落地，全年有效税率可能逼近20%。另一方面，尽管5月美国整体CPI维持在2.4%的低位，但经济学家预警下半年通胀年化率将飙升至5%，这一预测与当前市场对关税政策及石油价格的滞后反应密切相关。摩根大通策略的核心在于，通胀反弹并非单一因素驱动，而是石油价格、企业行为与汇率变动的综合结果。其行业配置建议凸显对资源类资产的偏好，同时警示工业领域短期阵痛。对于投资者而言，需密切关注企业成本转嫁能力与供应链弹性，以把握通胀升温中的结构性机会。
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