摩根士丹利发表报告指，神华(01088.HK) 料上半年净利润跌13%至20%，第二季净利润预计为117亿至137亿元人民币(下同)，按年下降9至22%，好过该行预期的109亿元。
报告指，业绩疲弱主要受到煤炭总销量按年下降11%、现货动力煤价格按年下跌超20%以及同期电力销售量减少的拖累。但上半年长期合同销量增加及更好的生产成本控制有助于缓冲利润下降。
大摩料，短期煤价或在夏季高峰期反弹。进入夏季，电厂每日煤炭消耗量逐步增加。市场动态方面，需求略有改善，港口煤炭库存下降，推动煤炭价格在传统消费旺季缓慢回升。
虽然国内煤炭供应充足可能限制价格反弹幅度，但价格改善及长期合同销量增加应有助于第三季维持稳健的盈利。同时，更高的股息支付和收益率为神华提供了另一个吸引投资者的角度，维持“增持”评级。目标价38港元。(ha/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-07-11 16:25。)
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