固定收益研究:2025年下半年债券投资分析

长城证券股份有...
14 Jul

上半年债市虽然一波三折,但利率却实际没有下行,由于去年年底机构抢配,年初十年期国债利率就为1.62%,而当前为1.65%左右,利率总体不降反升,让许多投资者失去了耐心。复盘来看,上半年真正大的行情其实就是4 月初,特朗普宣布对等关税后,外部宏观因素冲击带来的债市两三天20 多BP 大幅下行。我们在《六月债券投资分析》中已经指出,经济不及预期,年底机构抢配和关税扰动都只是债市定价辅变量,由此产生的...

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