花旗表示,香港银行板块年初至今已上涨37%,表现优于恒生指数,其中以中银香港的涨势最为强劲,主要受惠于南下资金追逐高股息标的的强劲买盘。虽然近期香港银行同业拆息(HIBOR)下滑可能对净息差构成压力,但该行预期随着HIBOR在2025年第四季逐步回归正常水平,银行业的盈利能力将有所改善。中期来看,尽管美联储降息可能对净息差带来挑战,但该行认为影响可控,因香港多数按揭贷款仍受最优惠利率上限保护,且市场预期联邦基金利率最终将维持在3%水平。此外,香港银行业资本充足率处于历史高位,为提高股东回报提供更佳可见度。 该行将恒生银行的评级从“中性”上调至“买入”,目标价从105港元上调至135港元;同时维持对中银香港的“买入”评级,目标价从33.9港元上调至40.8港元;而东亚银行则维持“中性”评级,目标价由11港元上调至11.6港元。
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