2025年夏季,美国总统特朗普再次凭借关税言论搅动全球市场情绪。他近日威胁将自8月1日起对来自欧盟与墨西哥的进口商品征收30%的高额关税,并强调若对方采取报复措施,将引发更严厉的税负回应。尽管措辞强硬,但市场对此反应却显得异常冷静。部分分析指出,这种“言重而行轻”的政策路径已在过往多次展演,被交易员总结为“TACO交易”(Trump Always Chickens Out)模式。历史上,特朗普在关键关税决策节点屡次延后措施。例如今年4月曾宣布对多国实施“对等关税”,但最终连续两次延期执行,至今仍未真正落地。由此,市场逐步形成一种路径依赖,即即便关税政策声势浩大,实际落地力度却有限。然而,分析警告,若此次“威胁”变成“执行”,市场可能遭遇风险定价的突发错位,尤其在流动性边际收紧、通胀与增长前景分化的背景下,结构性调整风险不容忽视。
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