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港股异动 | 煤炭股早盘普涨 高温背景下煤价仍具上涨动能 机构看好未来电煤压力缓解

智通财经
Jul 14

智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股早盘普涨，截至发稿，中国秦发(00866)涨5.65%，报1.87港元；中国神华(01088)涨4.52%， 报4.52%，报32.4港元；蒙古焦煤(00975)涨2.17%，报7.53港元；兖矿能源(01171)涨1.56%，报8.46港元。

信达证券指出，随着高温天气的到来，本周沿海电厂日耗跃升且库存呈现下降趋势，沿海电厂存煤可用天数快速下降。此外，未来10天我国黄淮等地持续高温，河北中南部、黄淮、江汉及陕西关中等地将持续35℃以上高温天气，局地可能接近或突破历史同期极值。我们预计电厂日耗或将维持高位，叠加当前电厂存煤可用天数较低，未来补库需求触发在即，煤炭价格仍具上涨动能。

此外，国泰海通证券发布研报称，近年来伴随着新能源装机高增，新能源发电量高速增长，对煤电的挤压效益日益明显，市场担忧在新能源的挤压下未来煤电将进入负增长阶段，从而导致电煤消费进入下行通道。2025年起随着新能源“430、531”新政出台，并且考虑到当前电网巨大的消纳压力和新能源项目盈利性下降明显，我们判断未来新能源发电将减速，对煤电的边际冲击减弱，我们测算电煤的需求拐点或将在2027年。

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