0612 GMT - The U.S. and EU remain likely to reach a trade deal, Commerzbank's Vincent Stamer says, after President Trump said he would impose a 30% tariff on all imports from the bloc. "The provocation certainly increases the risk of an escalation in the trade dispute," Stamer says. Indeed, a duty at that level on European goods could drag Europe's largest economy, Germany, by some 0.7% of total output within two years, according to Commerzbank's calculations. "Nevertheless, we continue to assume that a framework agreement will be concluded between the trading blocs in the coming months and that the average U.S. import tariff on goods from Europe will level off at around 15% by the fall," Stamer writes in a research note. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 14, 2025 02:12 ET (06:12 GMT)

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