花旗发表报告，指近期与颐海国际(01579.HK) 进行交流，预期2025年上半年收入及纯利将持平。虽然第三方销售预计可实现个位数增长，但将被关联方销售下滑所抵消，整体营收料维持平稳。由于产品组合变动及价格竞争加剧，第三方业务毛利率可能面临压力。尽管基本面表现平淡，但当前估值水平尚属合理，相当于预测市盈率15.6倍且股息率达5.7%。维持“中性”评级。
基于第三方及关联方销售预期下调，该行将颐海2025至2027年收入预测下调3%至7%。营业利润率微幅下调的影响被有效税率降低所抵消，故净利润调整幅度控制在正负1%以内。因自由现金流及汇率预测微调，以现金流折现率计，目标价由13.7港元小幅下调至13.4港元。
瑞银预期，受季节性因素带动，颐海2025年下半年收入增速有望较上半年改善。然而，在销售组合不利及价格竞争持续的影响下，毛利率压力或将延续。值得关注的是，由于境内向境外资本分配的一次性预扣税因素，预测有效税率将从2024年下半年的35%降至2025年下半年的28%。因此，预期净利润率将小幅改善，带动下半年净利润实现高个位数增长。(ad/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-07-14 12:25。)
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