金吾财讯 | 群益证券发研指,安踏体育(02020)发布2025年第二季度经营流水预告,预告Q2安踏品牌零售额同比录得低单位数正增长,FILA品牌零售额同比录得中单位数正增长,其他所有品牌零售额同比录得50—55%正增长。2025H1来看,安踏品牌零售额同比录得中单位数正增长,FILA品牌零售额同比录得高单位数正增长,其他所有品牌零售额同比录得60-65%正增长。该机构指,主品牌渠道调整导致短期承压。安踏品牌Q2流水增速环比有所下降(25Q1零售额同比录得高单位数正增长),主要由于Q2线上线下调整,线下推进门店焕新、线上电商负责人调整,以及618促销期公司折扣力度较克制,竞争压力下流水增长有所放缓。目前,新任电商负责人已到岗,后续业务规划有望优化。该机构续指,FILA维系发展动能,其他品牌继续领跑。FILA二季度零售额增速较Q1略有放缓(Q1同比录得高单位数正增长),但估计增速差异较小,一方面,大货复苏快于儿童和潮牌,另一方面,高尔夫、网球等专业运动品类放量,且折扣力度同比放大,带动销量增长。其他品牌维系高速增长,迪桑特/可隆/MAIA增长强劲,增速预计40%+、70%+和30%+。该机构维持对全年展望,一方面,下半年门店改造和电商调整成果将逐步显现,安踏品牌流水有望改善;另一方面,FILA有望维持高质量增长,其他品牌随着品牌力提升和门店网络扩张将延续高增长态势。此外,6月初公司完成JackWolfskin的收购事项,旗下品牌矩阵进一步完善,调整到位后将提升公司长期发展动能。该机构维持盈利预测,预计2025-2027年将分别实现净利润132.5亿、149.6亿和169.2亿,分别同比-15%(去年同期存在Amer Sports上市收益)、+13%和+13%,EPS分别为4.72元、5.33元和6.02元,当前股价对应PE分别为18倍、16倍和14倍,维持“买进”。
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