中邮证券研报指出，华新水泥预计2025年半年度实现归母净利润为10.96-11.32亿元，同比增加50%-55%；公司Q2单季度实现归母净利润8.8亿元，同比增长59%，业绩表现超预期。判断Q2国内外盈利均有所改善，一方面，国内市场尽管5月份以来价格呈现下滑趋势，但能源成本下跌明显，同时，公司通过强化内部成本管控、提升运营效率等措施降低生产成本，毛利空间同比有所扩张；另一方面，海外市场水泥仍维持较好景气度，此外预计Q2季度实现汇兑收益。长期展望，水泥行业需求呈现稳步下滑态势，供给端在限制超产政策下有望逐步出清，供给的出清力度影响价格弹性，认为行业有望在26-27年逐步实现供需平衡。
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