美银证券发布研报，2025年第二季市场能源价格持续按季下降，其中中国动力煤及冶金煤价格分别下跌12%及9%，布伦特期油价格下跌11%，东北亚现货液化天然气(LNG)下跌12%。与此同时，受可再生能源替代、贸易冲突及刺激政策有限的影响，能源需求保持疲弱。
美银全球商品团队近期将2025年布伦特原油平均价格预测上调至每桶67美元(此前为每桶65美元)。该行将中国石油2025及2026财年净利润预测分别上调16%及10%，至1570亿元及1600亿元，并将H股目标价由6.8港元上调至8港元，重申“买入”评级，理由包括：(1)天然气业务增长支撑稳健盈利；(2)股息及回购提供可观现金回报。
美银同时将中国石化2025及2026财年净利润预测分别上调1%及19%，至360亿及490亿元，并将H股目标价由4.7港元上调至4.8港元，重申“买入”评级，理由包括其估值吸引(2025财年预计市账率0.6倍)、5.4%的可观股息率，以及伊朗石油制裁可能解除的潜在利好。
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