A raid at Louisiana's Delta Downs illustrates the challenges for businesses and the economy as the Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration plays out. By Megan Leonhardt

It was shaping up to be a typical summer-like day at the Delta Downs racetrack in western Louisiana -- until immigration and law-enforcement officials descended on the facility around 7:30 a.m., locking down all the entrances to the horse stables.

They searched all 22 of the white barns lining the perimeter of the Vinton, La., racetrack, and the dormitories and trailers that house equine workers and some family members on-site. At least 84 individuals were detained in the raid for alleged immigration violations, including four who had previously been arrested for or convicted of criminal offenses , U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement said. Boyd Gaming--owned Delta Downs operates as a hotel, casino, and racetrack, but only the workers in the barns and stables, the majority of whom aren't directly employed by the company, were targeted in the immigration sweep.

Witnesses describe the June 17 ICE raid as frightening and chaotic, with agents interrupting the track's morning training routines just one day before the week's races were set to begin on June 18. Arrested workers were zip-tied by masked ICE agents carrying guns, and loaded into waiting vehicles that transported the detainees to the Lake Charles Border Patrol Station about 30 miles away. Some horses were left unattended in the confusion.

News of the Delta Downs raid spread quickly in the racing community. Witnesses say the stables at nearby Evangeline Downs racetrack and local equine-training centers became ghost towns as workers cleared out, fearing additional raids. Within a day, stables and racing facilities across the U.S. were on alert, as rumors of ICE sightings at various racetracks sparked panic.

Roughly three-quarters of U.S. equine workers are foreign-born, according to industry estimates, and a substantial number are undocumented. That makes the tightknit horse racing industry especially vulnerable to the Trump administration's stepped-up immigration enforcement actions.

In the wake of the Delta Downs raid, which nabbed grooms, riders, and other stable workers hired by horse owners and trainers, industry officials tell Barron's that the U.S. racing industry is facing an existential threat. "The raid has affected every part of the industry, and people are on pins and needles as to whether these raids will continue at racetracks," says Michele Rodriguez, owner of Louisiana-based Elite Thoroughbreds Farm. "If that's the case, racing won't survive."

President Donald Trump took office vowing to restrict illegal immigration and increase immigration enforcement, decrying what he described as an influx of criminals among the millions of people who entered the U.S. illegally under the Biden administration. Since Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration, he has declared a national emergency stemming from an "invasion" of unauthorized migrants. He has militarized border enforcement; revoked temporary protected status for individuals from several countries, including Venezuela and Haiti; and stepped up arrests, detentions, and removals of undocumented immigrants living in the U.S.

"Removing these dangerous criminals and targeting the sanctuary cities that provide them safe harbor is a top priority for the president," White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said in a statement to Barron's.

The spending bill recently passed by Congress provides more than $170 billion to support immigration and border enforcement, including $45 billion for the expansion of ICE immigrant detention facilities. That reflects an increase of more than 300% over the detention budget for fiscal 2024, according to the American Immigration Council.

What's at Stake for Business

Immigrants, documented and undocumented, account for about 20% of U.S. workers. With ICE raids now a hallmark of the Trump administration's immigration policy, businesses that rely on undocumented workers have been put on notice. As the backside contractors at Delta Downs learned, such raids can result in sudden business disruption. Surprise raids can decimate a workforce and expose businesses to steep legal liabilities, making it difficult to resume normal operations.

The equine industry has a relatively small economic footprint, generating about $2 billion annually for the state of Louisiana and contributing roughly $177 billion a year to the nearly $30 trillion U.S. economy, according to the American Horse Council. As raids take place in other, larger industries, however, the economic impact may be felt more widely.

Numerous companies in industries such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality have already experienced many of the same immigration-related disruptions as Delta Downs -- ICE raids, employment audits, arrests, and the resultant chaos that impedes operations.

Worksite immigration raids have shut down production at a dairy farm in eastern New Mexico, and created more than 70 job vacancies at Glen Valley Foods, a meatpacking plant in Omaha, Neb. That facility, which produces commercial and retail beef and chicken products, was left operating at reduced capacity in the days after it was raided by ICE on June 10, according to company executives.

U.S. immigration has slowed markedly since President Trump took office, declining to an annualized pace of 600,000 by April, according to Goldman Sachs. That compares with peak immigration flows of 3.5 million to four million people in 2023. Illegal border crossings were down 93% in May compared with a year earlier, while deportations could reduce net migration to just 300,000 for the full year and 200,000 in 2026, Morgan Stanley projects. Some researchers estimate that total net migration to the U.S. could be negative this year and next for the first time in at least 65 years.

Economists expect the reduction in immigration to result in slower job growth and weaker economic expansion. Annual growth in gross domestic product may be 0.8 percentage point lower than otherwise expected this year due to curbs on immigration, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

'No Safe Harbor'

President Trump has acknowledged that farms, hotels, and restaurants are vital businesses, and said on July 1 that his administration is working on exemptions for unauthorized agricultural and hospitality workers. "We're going to have a system of signing them up so they don't have to go," he said. "They can be here legally."

Yet, even as the president has floated such exceptions, workplace actions have continued. Immigration authorities have been tasked with arresting 3,000 undocumented immigrants a day.

"President Trump is a tireless advocate for American farmers -- they keep our families fed and our country prosperous. He trusts farmers and is committed to ensuring they have the workforce needed to remain successful. But there will be no safe harbor for the countless, unvetted, criminal illegal aliens," Jackson told Barron's.

The American Business Immigration Coalition, which represents 1,700 business leaders nationwide, has urged President Trump to issue a deferred-action order for the agriculture and hospitality sectors. Workers would submit to background checks and register for work permits, but not be put on a path to citizenship.

"The solution should be: People who are here working, paying taxes, who may not be authorized -- we should bring them out of the shadows," says Rebecca Shi, the immigration coalition's CEO. "Give them certainty. Keep these businesses open."

Employers' Conundrum

Many businesses are caught in a bind when it comes to employment. They need staff to keep businesses running, but often can't find enough available Americans willing to do the work. Acquiring the proper work visas is a difficult proposition for both business and immigrant workers. The H-2B visa program -- used for temporary nonagricultural workers such as those in the equine industry -- is capped at 66,000 annually. That isn't enough to staff even the backside stables at racetracks around the country, let alone other industries.

Many businesses caught up in recent ICE raids have said they were following employment laws. But common employment-verification tools provided by the federal government, such as Form I-9 and the E-Verify system, are imperfect and provide few safeguards for employers. Neither of these tools, for example, can weed out immigrants using false documents that belong to a legal worker.

Employers generally accept such documents at face value to avoid discrimination lawsuits , especially in sectors with tight labor supply. "It's an open secret that a lot of people have dubious documents, and so I feel like employers are put in a weird position," says a Wisconsin-based dairy farmer.

The farmer told Barron's that while he is concerned about potential ICE enforcement actions since other farms have been targeted, he is still inclined to assume that the verification documents provided by his workers are legitimate. His business has I-9 paperwork on file for all workers, he added.

The required paperwork and verification tools are complicated, and employers, workers, and government agencies that monitor employment are prone to errors in filling them out and reviewing them, according to immigration attorneys. Even successful use of E-Verify doesn't shield employers from enforcement. At Glenn Valley Foods in Omaha, executives say they used E-Verify to check workers' employment status, yet still were raided by ICE.

"If you've even inadvertently made mistakes, they can come and fine you, " says William Velie, an Oklahoma-based immigration attorney who works with equine employers. "There is no liability waiver."

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