韩国央行在一份分析报告中指出，随着降息预期减弱以及债券供应增加，韩国国债收益率曲线料面临上行压力。

　　韩国央行的金融市场部指出，关于宽松周期结束的讨论，可能会在下一次降息前后成为市场关注焦点。

　　如果货币和财政政策的效果开始在实体经济中显现，短期收益率可能会上升。政府债券发行可能集中在第三季度，收益率的波动或将暂时加剧。

　　根据2026年预算草案、8月中期财政管理计划以及12月底年度国债发行计划的内容，期限溢价也可能面临上行压力。

　　如果明年债务发行规模显著上升，再叠加市场对降息周期结束的预期，这一影响可能会被放大。

　　不过，韩国寿险公司的稳健需求，以及韩国债券被纳入富时世界国债指数后带来的外国资金流入，预计将限制长期债券收益率的上升幅度。

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