Original Title: Half-Year Report 2025

Original Source: Binance Research

Original Translator: Chopper, Foresight News

In the first half of 2025, the cryptocurrency market presented a pattern of "initial suppression and subsequent rebound": the total market cap fell by 18.61% in the first quarter, rebounded by 25.32% in the second quarter, and ultimately saw a slight year-on-year growth of 1.99% in the first half of the year.

Year-to-date, the total cryptocurrency market cap has risen by 1.99%.

This momentum is attributed to various factors:

· The rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2024 and the expectation of regulatory easing after the U.S. election propelled the market to a high of $3 trillion;

· In early 2025, sticky inflation, soft economic data, and the widespread tariffs implemented by the Trump administration in April dampened market sentiment;

· The recent tariff suspension, along with increased clarity on stablecoin and DeFi regulation, has driven market recovery.

Timeline of Key Events in the First Half of 2025

The core narratives of the cryptocurrency market in the first half of the year focused on Bitcoin investment tools, stablecoins, AI agents, and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). Looking ahead, key points of focus will include global monetary policies, trade tariff dynamics, institutional participation, the integration of cryptocurrency and AI, and a new wave of cryptocurrency IPOs post-Circle.

I. Macro Background and Market Performance

Global Economic "Great Divergence"

Economic divergence: the U.S. economy is gradually slowing down, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1% but the labor market cooling off; China's first-quarter GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, benefiting from stimulus policies; the Eurozone and Japan's economies are steadily recovering.

G4 Countries' Quarterly GDP Performance and Market Forecasts

Liquidity expansion: the combined currency supply of the four major economies - U.S., China, Eurozone, and Japan - increased by $5.5 trillion, marking the largest half-year increase in four years, driving a recovery in risk asset sentiment.

Geopolitical Shock: The brief US-China trade war led to tariffs soaring to 145%, exacerbating market volatility.

Bitcoin's "High Beta Property"

Bitcoin has seen a year-to-date return of 13%, outperforming most traditional stock indices, with a market capitalization of over $2 trillion. Its price cycle is seen as a leading indicator of the global manufacturing cycle (leading by 8-12 months), implying an opportunity in the second half of 2025.

Year-to-Date Returns of Key Global Assets

II. Core Asset Performance: Bitcoin and Public Chain Ecosystem

Bitcoin Ecosystem Maturation

Rapid Institutional Adoption: Spot ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of over $13.7 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the market; over 140 publicly listed companies hold 848,000 BTC, a growth of over 160% compared to last year.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Have Attracted Over $13.7 Billion in Net Inflows Year-to-Date

Ecosystem Innovation and Divergence: Layer2 solutions (such as Stacks, BitVM) are advancing scalability, BTCFi's total value locked (TVL) has reached $6.5 billion, a 550% year-on-year increase; however, speculation on Bitcoin native assets like Ordinals and Runes has cooled down, with daily trading volume hitting an 18-month low.

Market Dominance: Bitcoin's dominance rate has peaked at 65.1%, reaching a four-year high, underscoring its core asset status.

Mainstream Public Chain Developments

Ethereum: ETH price dropped by 26%, but ecosystem resilience is evident. The Pectra upgrade has increased staking efficiency (maximum balance for a single validating node raised from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH), with a staked amount of 35.4 million ETH (29.3% of circulation); Layer2 solutions (Base, Arbitrum, etc.) are processing over 90% of transactions, becoming key scaling solutions.

Ethereum-to-Bitcoin exchange rate dropped to 0.023, hitting a multi-year low as of June 30, 2025

Solana: Maintaining high throughput (daily average transactions of 99 million), stablecoin market cap reaching $109 billion, surpassing BNB Chain; increased institutional interest, with multiple asset management companies applying for a spot SOL ETF, expected to be approved by mid-year.

Stablecoin Market Cap on Major Public Chains, data as of June 30, 2025

BNB Chain: DEX trading volume hitting a historic high, with PancakeSwap contributing over 90%; block time reduced to 0.8 seconds through upgrades like Pascal and Lorentz, expanding ecosystem into Memecoin, RWA, and AI fields, with daily active addresses reaching 4.4 million.

III. DeFi and Stablecoins: From Speculation to Utility

DeFi Entering a Mature Stage

Key Data: TVL stabilizing at $151.5 billion, monthly active users reaching 340 million (YoY +240%), DEX spot trading volume share rising to 29%, reaching an all-time high.

Major DeFi Index Changes Over Six Months and One Year

Key Trends:

· RWA Surge: On-chain real-world asset value reaching $24.4 billion, with private credit constituting 58%, becoming a crucial bridge connecting TradFi and DeFi.

· Prediction Markets Breakthrough: Polymarket partnering with social platform X, with a June trading volume exceeding $1.1 billion and 400,000 monthly active users, becoming an information analysis tool.

· Liquidity Stratification: Ethereum leading with institutional-grade assets (heavy staking, RWA), Solana focusing on retail trading, BNB Chain attracting traffic with Memecoin and zero gas fee events.

Acceleration of Stablecoin Mainstreaming

Market Landscape: Total market cap surpassing $250 billion, with USDT ($153-156 billion) and USDC ($61.5 billion) forming a duopoly, jointly accounting for 92.1%.

Stablecoin Total Supply Grows Over 22% This Year, Setting New Record

Key Developments:

· Institutional Adoption: Circle goes public through IPO on NYSE, raising over $6 billion; Banks like JPMorgan and Société Générale launch their own stablecoins; Walmart and Amazon explore proprietary stablecoins to reduce payment costs.

· Regulatory Clarity: The US "GENIUS Act" is passed, EU's MiCA is fully implemented, providing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, aiming to make them a cross-border payment and settlement infrastructure.

IV. Institutional Onboarding

TradFi Integration: 60% of Fortune 500 companies are adopting blockchain technology; JPMorgan launches JPM Coin, a stablecoin based on JPM; Apollo Global Management tokenizes a $78.5 billion credit fund on Solana.

Asset Tokenization: Acceleration of on-chain representation of traditional assets like stocks, bonds, etc., with platforms like xStocks from Backed Finance and dShares from Dinari supporting 24/7 trading, while Robinhood introduces synthetic stock derivatives in the EU.

Comparison Analysis of Stock Tokenization by xStocks, dShares, and Robinhood

V. Regulatory Landscape

Major Cryptocurrency Regulation Policies in the First Half of 2025

· US: Transition from "Enforcement Regulation" to "Legislative Guidance," with the "CLARITY Act" and "GENIUS Act" clarifying digital asset classification and stablecoin rules, driving institutional compliance.

· EU: Full implementation of MiCA, USDT delisted from some exchanges due to non-compliance, while compliant stablecoins like USDC see increased market share.

· Asia: Hong Kong attracts innovation through open licenses and tax incentives; Singapore cracks down on regulatory arbitrage, leading to company migrations.

Second Half of the Year Outlook

The Federal Reserve's policy shift, progress in U.S. crypto regulation, TradFi and crypto mergers and acquisitions, stablecoin payment penetration, RWA breakout, and more will dominate the direction of the crypto market in the second half of the year.

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