金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指出，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)2025年第二季度可归属产量同比增长15%，销量同比下降6%，主要受恶劣天气导致的临时港口关闭影响交付。第二季度综合平均售价(ASP)同比下降22%，但基本与市场趋势一致。该机构指，公司第二季度可归属动力煤/冶金煤销量同比-9%/+30%至680万/130万吨（总可归属销量同比-6%至810万吨）；产量端，可归属总产量同比+15%至940万吨。上半年可归属总产量同比+11%至1890万吨，占全年指引（3500-3900万吨）的48-54%，管理层对全年产量达指引上限有信心。该机构续指，第二季度动力煤ASP同比下降20%至130澳元/吨（处于GCNewc6000大卡煤价区间157澳元/吨或100美元/吨与API5煤价107澳元/吨或68美元/吨之间）；冶金煤ASP同比下降38%至197澳元/吨，接近低挥发份喷吹煤(PCI)市场价格。该机构表示，预计公司第二季度收入约11.4亿澳元（同比-26%；环比-14%）。该机构将2025-2027年盈利预测分别下调22%/17%/13%，主要因煤炭均价下行（尽管销量假设略高）。该机构维持“买入”评级，原因如下：(1)预计2025年第三季度销售率将提升（物流问题改善推动）；(2)动力煤价格自6月起已反弹。基于净现值的目标价从36港元下调至34港元。
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