By Al Root

3M earnings are coming Friday. The state of the consumer, and how 3M can offset any weakness, will go a long way to determining how investors feel about the rest of 2025 for the maker of Post-it Notes.

For the second quarter, Wall Street is looking for earnings per share of $2.01 from sales of $6.1 billion. A year ago, 3M reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.93 on sales of $6 billion.

Reported sales are expected to grow about 1.6% year over year. Growth hasn't been easy for 3M lately. In the first quarter of 2024, organic sales grew by about 1%, which was the first positive reading in four quarters.

In the first quarter of 2025, comparable sales grew about 1.5% year over year. Wall Street expects full-year 2025 comparable sales growth of about 2.5%.

Analysts also project full year 2025 earnings per share of about $7.71. That's in the company's guidance range of $7.60 to $7.90 a share, which excludes estimate tariff costs of about 30 cents.

"3M's consumer leverage could clip down core sales guidance from current 2% to 3% range, but we see considerable offsets from foreign exchange, cost and investment spending," wrote Wolfe Research analyst Nigel Coe in a research report.

Consumer spending might be slowing, but 3M does a lot of business overseas and the dollar has been weak lately. That makes foreign sales a little more valuable in U.S. terms.

Coe rates shares Buy and has a $186 price target for the stock. 3M stock gained 1% on Thursday, closing at $159.05, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5%.

BofA Securities analyst Andrew Obin, like Coe, is thinking about the consumer. "Our conversations with 3M intra-quarter suggests that consumer [business] remains a cautious environment." He sees 2025 organic growth barely positive, below the Wall Street consensus, but he still likes shares. Obin rates 3M stock Buy and has a $170 price target for the stock.

Investors, like always, would like an earnings 'beat' from 3M. They would also like to hear some comforting news about consumer spending.

Options markets imply the stock will move about 4%, up or down, following earnings. Shares have moved about 9% following the prior four earnings reports, rising three times and falling once over that span, which includes a big 23% gain after the company reported second-quarter 2024 earnings.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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July 17, 2025 19:31 ET (23:31 GMT)

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