MW Some Americans are hoarding coffee, fearing that prices for their morning brew could go even higher

By Charles Passy

Weather conditions in coffee-producing countries have already boosted prices - and tariff threats could add to that

How do you deal with the high price of coffee? If you're Lisa Wells, you play the hoarding game.

A public-relations consultant who calls New York City home, Wells has taken to buying multiple bags of her favorite beans and storing them in her pantry, all in the name of locking in prices. Notwithstanding the fact that coffee has a limited shelf life - java experts say it's best to use it within six months to a year of the roasting date - Wells's strategy has paid off financially, given that costs have been rising steadily in the past couple of years.

Plus, Wells said, there's an ancillary benefit: "The best part of it is that when I open my pantry door, I get that delicious smell of coffee from the multiple cans."

These days, there may be even more reason to panic over coffee prices. President Donald Trump's recent announcement that he plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods led to an immediate spike in coffee futures - up 5.4% on Monday, to $3.0185 per pound - given that the South American country is a major coffee exporter.

But prices have been climbing generally in the past few years. In January 2023, coffee futures were trading for as low as around $1.50 per pound, but by February of this year futures had soared to above $4, although they then fell in May and June.

Not unexpectedly, pricing at the retail level has been trending higher as well, although commodity and coffee experts note there's often considerable lag time between the futures market and the prices consumers see in stores and restaurants. In June, retail coffee prices were up 2.2% over the previous month, according to federal data released Tuesday. That far outpaces the 0.3% increase in the broader array of consumer goods and services for the month.

Those who buy higher-end coffee in particular are feeling the pain, experts note. It's not unusual to see 12-ounce bags of coffee - the industry's standard size - selling for at or above $15, or even above $20 in the case of some select offerings.

Meanwhile, if you're buying a morning cup from your local specialty place, you're now paying $4.50 on average for that premium brew, according to data from Toast, a company that provides payment services and tracks the restaurant industry. That's up from $4 two years ago.

Even a median-priced cup of coffee, as in your everyday restaurant joe, now costs $3.50 - up from $3.13 two years ago, according to Toast.

What has generally been driving prices higher has been bad weather conditions in coffee-producing nations, such as a drought in Vietnam. Just as the situation appeared to be improving, at least on the futures front, tariffs added a new twist.

"We're going to pay through the nose," said Jack Scoville, vice president of the Price Futures Group, of the effect of tariffs on retail coffee prices.

And that is leading some consumers to start squirreling coffee away. On social-media platforms, you'll find plenty of folks with a similar mindset to that of Lisa Wells.

"Omg ... now I have to start hoarding coffee," said one commenter on X.

Consumers can consider other options to save money, of course. Some might trade down from high-end brews to more affordable ones. Those who get their morning joe from restaurants or coffee shops could make coffee at home instead.

Alexia D. McKay, a coffee fanatic who's also a parenting blogger, said she's in the latter camp. "I used to religiously go to Starbucks, but over time it started to weigh heavily on my pockets," she said. "I can make as many cups of coffee as I want for $6 or $7 within the comfort of my home versus paying the same for a medium cup out."

Some coffee companies said they're holding the line on pricing, with Starbucks (SBUX) perhaps the most prominent example. Last year, it pledged not to raise prices at the stores owned and operated by the company in the U.S. and Canada through the end of September 2025. It also said it would stop applying a surcharge for drinks made with nondairy milks.

Graffeo Coffee Roasting Co., a specialty brand based in San Francisco, has also been trying to limit price increases. "We are holding out as long as we can," said Walter Haas, the company's co-owner.

Raphael Perrier, co-founder of Florida-based Kahwa Coffee Roasters, said companies that keep boosting prices may lose customers in the process. In the end, that will force the most expensive ones to lower prices, he believes.

"When you're paying $20 for a 12-ounce bag, it's insanity," he said.

Either way, there could be relief in sight, especially as weather conditions improve in major coffee-producing countries, experts note. There's also the possibility that the Trump administration could lower its 50% tariff rate on goods imported from Brazil.

But it may be late 2026 or early 2027 before coffee prices come down, said Shaun Michael Lewis, a former coffee-industry executive who now works in real estate. Blame it on industry lag time, he explained: Coffee futures (KC00) represent the price of unroasted (or green) beans, but it takes time to ship those beans, roast them and then package them for retail or restaurants.

In the interim, Lewis doesn't advocate going the hoarding route. Your coffee "is going to be quite stale if that's your strategy," he said.

-Charles Passy

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July 17, 2025 11:19 ET (15:19 GMT)

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