Hottest days of summer still to come next week
Output on track to hit monthly record high in July
Storage at 6% above normal, and growing
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a three-week high on Friday as hot weather forces power generators to burn lots of the fuel to keep air conditioners humming and a slow but steady rise in gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants.
That price increase came despite ample amounts of gas in storage and record output. That record output should allow energy firms to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks. Stockpiles were currently around 6% above the five-year normal. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.3 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $3.565 per million British thermal units, their highest close since June 27.
For the week, the front-month was up about 8% after dropping around 14% over the prior four weeks.
Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 U.S. states would remain mostly hotter than normal through at least August 2, with the hottest days so far this summer expected next week.
Temperatures across the country will average around 81 degrees Fahrenheit (27.2 degrees Celsius) on July 25, on track to top this summer's current hottest daily average of 80 F on June 24 but still below the daily average record high of 83 F on July 20, 2022, according to data from financial firm LSEG going back to 2018.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 rose to 107.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June.
On a daily basis, output hit a record high of 107.92 bcfd on July 14, topping the prior all-time daily high of 107.91 bcfd on April 18.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would slide from 110.1 bcfd this week to 107.4 bcfd next week before rising to 110.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 15.8 bcfd so far in July as liquefaction units at some plants slowly exited maintenance reductions and unexpected outages. That was up from 14.3 bcfd in June and 15.0 bcfd in May, but remained below the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan KMI.N said its 0.4-bcfd Elba Island LNG export plant in Georgia should return to service by the weekend after a couple of days of maintenance.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $12 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Jul 18 Forecast | Week ended Jul 11 Actual | Year ago Jul 18 | Five-year average Jul 18 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +39 | +46 | +20 | +30 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,091 | 3,052 | 3,228 | 2,904 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.4% | +6.2% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.56 | 3.54 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.72 | 11.93 | 10.32 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.18 | 12.41 | 12.32 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 238 | 236 | 218 | 213 | 203 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 241 | 240 | 221 | 216 | 206 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 106.5 | 107.5 | 107.4 | 103.3 | 97.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.0 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.7 | 116.0 | 115.3 | N/A | 105.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | N/A | 6.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 15.2 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 11.1 | 10.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
U.S. Residential | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
U.S. Power Plant | 45.2 | 47.8 | 45.2 | 49.0 | 48.1 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22.3 | 21.8 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 82.9 | 85.6 | 83.1 | 86.4 | 86.9 |
Total U.S. Demand | 107.1 | 110.1 | 107.4 | N/A | 99.2 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 77 | 77 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 79 | 79 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 80 | 80 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jul 18 | Week ended Jul 11 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 7 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
44 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 19 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 16 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.52 | 3.42 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.05 | 3.13 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.90 | 3.82 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.74 | 2.91 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.26 | 3.29 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 4.25 | 9.75 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.79 | 3.93 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.88 | 1.91 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.17 | 0.40 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 62.93 | 165.64 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 64.93 | 112.27 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 36.03 | 54.77 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 44.42 | 53.75 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 29.48 | 39.31 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavinoEditing by Nick Zieminski and Marguerita Choy)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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