US natgas prices edge up to 3-week high as heat boosts air conditioning use

Reuters
19 Jul
UPDATE 1-US natgas prices edge up to 3-week high as heat boosts air conditioning use

Hottest days of summer still to come next week

Output on track to hit monthly record high in July

Storage at 6% above normal, and growing

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a three-week high on Friday as hot weather forces power generators to burn lots of the fuel to keep air conditioners humming and a slow but steady rise in gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants.

That price increase came despite ample amounts of gas in storage and record output. That record output should allow energy firms to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks. Stockpiles were currently around 6% above the five-year normal. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.3 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $3.565 per million British thermal units, their highest close since June 27.

For the week, the front-month was up about 8% after dropping around 14% over the prior four weeks.

Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 U.S. states would remain mostly hotter than normal through at least August 2, with the hottest days so far this summer expected next week.

Temperatures across the country will average around 81 degrees Fahrenheit (27.2 degrees Celsius) on July 25, on track to top this summer's current hottest daily average of 80 F on June 24 but still below the daily average record high of 83 F on July 20, 2022, according to data from financial firm LSEG going back to 2018.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 rose to 107.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June.

On a daily basis, output hit a record high of 107.92 bcfd on July 14, topping the prior all-time daily high of 107.91 bcfd on April 18.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would slide from 110.1 bcfd this week to 107.4 bcfd next week before rising to 110.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 15.8 bcfd so far in July as liquefaction units at some plants slowly exited maintenance reductions and unexpected outages. That was up from 14.3 bcfd in June and 15.0 bcfd in May, but remained below the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan KMI.N said its 0.4-bcfd Elba Island LNG export plant in Georgia should return to service by the weekend after a couple of days of maintenance.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $12 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Jul 18 Forecast

Week ended Jul 11 Actual

Year ago Jul 18

Five-year average

Jul 18

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+39

+46

+20

+30

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,091

3,052

3,228

2,904

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+6.4%

+6.2%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.56

3.54

2.21

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.72

11.93

10.32

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.18

12.41

12.32

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

3

4

3

3

3

U.S. GFS CDDs

238

236

218

213

203

U.S. GFS TDDs

241

240

221

216

206

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

106.5

107.5

107.4

103.3

97.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.2

8.5

8.0

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

114.7

116.0

115.3

N/A

105.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.0

2.0

2.1

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.0

7.0

6.8

N/A

6.4

U.S. LNG Export Feedgas

15.2

15.4

15.4

11.1

10.0

U.S. Commercial

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.7

U.S. Residential

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

U.S. Power Plant

45.2

47.8

45.2

49.0

48.1

U.S. Industrial

22.2

22.2

22.3

21.8

21.7

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

3.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

82.9

85.6

83.1

86.4

86.9

Total U.S. Demand

107.1

110.1

107.4

N/A

99.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

77

77

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

79

79

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

80

80

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jul 18

Week ended Jul 11

2024

2023

2022

Wind

7

7

11

10

11

Solar

7

7

5

4

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

44

44

42

41

38

Coal

19

19

16

17

21

Nuclear

16

17

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.52

3.42

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

3.05

3.13

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.90

3.82

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.74

2.91

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

3.26

3.29

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

4.25

9.75

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.79

3.93

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.88

1.91

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.17

0.40

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

62.93

165.64

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

64.93

112.27

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

36.03

54.77

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

44.42

53.75

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

29.48

39.31

(Reporting by Scott DiSavinoEditing by Nick Zieminski and Marguerita Choy)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10