渣打中国宏观策略主管刘洁表示，上半年人民币兑美元仅升值1.9%，主要因美元指数(DXY)创1973年以来最大上半年跌幅，且中国经济增长与出口表现优于预期。然而，下半年基本面支撑减弱，反映人民币可能温和贬值，当中内地实际GDP增速或从上半年的5.3%放缓至下半年的4.5%，因财政刺激效应在上半年提前释放后减弱。另外，中国出口增速或转负，且贸易顺差于上半年增长35%后可能回落。该行下调美元兑人民币汇率预测，将第三季末汇率预测由7.65降至7.25，年底汇率预测由7.75降至7.35，即较现时分别轻微贬值1.1%与2.5%。同时将2026年首季与次季预测由7.8下调至7.3至7.35，但维持2026年下半年7.2的预测不变。(ss/a)
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