美银证券发表研究报告指,预计恒生银行(00011.HK) 上半年收入平稳,达204亿元;净利息收入减少将被非利息收入增长大致抵销,然而,其信用成本或按年翻倍,导致期内净利润按年下降16%至83亿港元,并将2025至2027年盈测下调0至3%。
该行提到,由于恒生银行的不良贷款覆盖率较低,预计其2025财年信用成本预测为70个基点,而2026至2027年则为60个基点。不过,在HIBOR大幅下降及香港房地产市场消除极端风险后,将股本成本下调75个基点至9%。因此,该行将恒生目标价由92.5元上调10%至102元,重申“跑输大市”评级。
该行预期,恒生银行上半年净息差将较去年下半年下降13个基点至1.99%,而净利息收入将按年跌6%,这主要是由于去年下半年联储局减息以及自今年5月以来HIBOR急剧下跌。该行预测手续费收入将按年增长20%,而其他非利息收入则升19%。又预期不良贷款规模和不良贷款比率将分别进一步上升至535亿元及6.4%。该行预计,恒生银行今年或再进行30亿元回购,但相信较难维持稳定派息。(sl/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-07-23 16:25。)
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