核心观点如何理解实体经济债务周期与银行体系风险周期的关系?实体经济的债务对应银行的资产,信用扩张是资金从银行流向实体经济,风险暴露则是实体经济发生债务风险,然后传导至银行体系。2008年后经济增速中枢下移,投资驱动增长的模式下,过剩产能逐渐积累,2013-2018年银行业经历一轮对公传统产能不良周期。投资驱动增长的模式下,2009年、2012-2014年宏观杠杆率两度上行,企业部门为加杠杆主力,...
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