大行评级|交银国际:上调台积电目标价至280美元 预期今年收入增速按美元计超30%

格隆汇
Jul 21, 2025

交银国际发表研究报告指,台积电次季毛利率为58.6%,高于该行预期,认为台积电的毛利韧性远强于市场预期。管理层将全年按美元计收入按年增速指引由约25%上调至30%,并暗示新指引或仍然“保守”。报告提到,管理层认为美国政府放宽AI芯片限制进一步加大AI芯片需求。2纳米制程或于下半年上量生产,管理层重申上量进度与3纳米上量进度相似,且2纳米流片数大于同期3或5纳米流片数。长期而言,2纳米以下在美国的产能或占全球产能的30%。该行认为消费电子受贸易不确定性影响复苏温和,但AI高需求足以推动公司2纳米上线后维持3或5纳米价格,令2025年收入增速按美元计超过30%。该行上调对其目标价至280美元,评级“买入”。

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