【券商聚焦】交银国际指外卖平台掀起补贴战 餐饮行业迎来流量红利

金吾财讯
Jul 23, 2025

金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指,外卖平台掀起补贴战,餐饮行业迎来流量红利:外卖平台于2025年4月率先掀起补贴战,7月起补贴力度持续加码,日均订单量迅速攀升。从受益度来看,该机构认为现制饮品>快餐>正餐。部分现制茶饮SKU在补贴后实付价格已经与瓶装水/茶饮料的价格区间重叠,有望成为成为本轮补贴中的最大受益者。现制茶饮/咖啡的连锁化率已较高,标准化程度与规模复制优势明显。该机构认为规模化连锁与头部品牌将凭借完善的供应链、强大的品牌影响力及广泛的渠道网络,获得平台补贴更多倾斜,有望进一步巩固市场。该机构提到,渗透率和频次的双重提升为餐饮企业带来可观增量空间,但同时也对履单和运营效率提出了更高要求。现制饮品在中国市场的渗透率仍有充足的上升空间,若补贴持续,有望加速现制饮品对瓶装水/茶饮料的替代,带动现制饮品的渗透率进一步提升。对于未来展望与关注重点,该机构指,短期来看,外卖补贴仍将持续为头部连锁餐饮企业提供流量和订单红利,行业中具备品牌与供应链优势的领先企业有望借此释放更强的规模效应,从而抢占市场份额。长期来看,供应链韧性、运营效率和产品创新是增长与盈利的核心驱动力。行业集中度将进一步提升,头部品牌凭借规模优势实现更高质量发展。可关注蜜雪冰城、瑞幸与百胜中国等龙头的动态,以把握市场趋势。

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