金吾财讯 | 开源证券研报指,TCL电子(01070)发布2025H1业绩预告,预计2025H1经调整归母净利润9.5~10.8亿港元,同比增长45%~65%。2025H1中国/国际彩电出货量同比分别+3.5/+8.7%,全球彩电出货量稳居前二。展望后续:(1)内销彩电结构升级有望持续,大尺寸以及MiniLED电视占比提升有望带动国内盈利提升。奥维云网数据显示,2025Q2 TCL品牌70~79寸/80~89寸/MiniLED电视销额占比分别达到35%/33%/72%,同比分别+2/+4/+27pct。(2)外销彩电方面,美国市场渠道结构持续调整,高毛利率的Bestbuy和Costco渠道占比有望进一步提升带动盈利改善;欧洲逐步切入德国主流渠道,继续看好海外彩电收入稳健增长以及盈利提升。(3)当前面板价格呈回落趋势,洛图科技数据显示7月面板价格跌幅与6月一致,面板成本回落有助于品牌方毛利修复。考虑到中高端产品延续此前高增长态势带动利润率提升,该机构略微上调盈利预测,预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为22.99/26.59/29.90亿港元(原值为22.56/26.16/29.82亿港元),对应EPS分别为0.9/1.1/1.2港元,当前股价对应PE分别为11.3/9.7/8.7倍,伴随国内外产品和渠道升级及拓展,继续看好公司长期利润率提升以及欧洲/新兴市场增长,维持“买入”评级。
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