Chuck Li:鲍威尔不会“主动辞职”,与特朗普“斗争到最后一刻”才是理性选择

凤凰网港股
Jul 22, 2025

近期,特朗普可能“解雇”鲍威尔的“传言”再度重现4月的股债汇“三杀”局面,随后特朗普宣布并无解雇鲍威尔的计划,股债汇“三杀”局面缓解。虽然美国总统从未“解雇”过联储主席,但是联储主席有因政治压力而提前辞职、转任他职的案例,根据历史记录,在任期结束前离任的美联储主席有4任。

资深美股分析师Chuck Li对凤凰网财经表示,鲍威尔不会“主动辞职”,与特朗普“斗争到最后一刻”才是理性选择。鲍威尔如果主动辞职,是非常愚蠢的决策,对他而言最好的策略是坚持下去。对鲍威尔个人而言,也许最核心考量是历史定位:美联储主席任内(美国)经济衰退属正常,不会有历史学家因为出现经济衰退批评他,但通胀失控将如前任伯恩斯般被钉上耻辱柱,遗臭万年。因此,在声誉奖惩严重不对称下,鲍威尔的理性选择是坚持高利率,且绝不主动辞职。即使最坏情况鲍威尔被特朗普免职,反而不会影响声誉,如同明朝的清流受廷杖一般反成荣耀。

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