【券商聚焦】东吴证券维持百度(09888)“买入”评级料次季核心广告业务承压

金吾财讯

Jul 21, 2025

金吾财讯 | 东吴证券研报指，25Q2百度(09888)核心广告业务受AI搜索改造等影响可能承压。百度核心以广告业务为基，由于ai搜索改造等影响，该机构预计25Q2广告业务营收可能同比下滑16.3%。该机构指，百度萝卜快跑领跑全球Robotaxi行业，UE有望于2028年回正，目前已于全球15座、全国13座城市开放载人测试运营服务。25年Q1订单量同比增长75%至144万次。百度萝卜快跑商业模式逐步成熟，该机构根据相关上市公司财报和公开新闻，测算百度萝卜快跑单车UE model，除了假设运营数据逐步走升带来每日毛收入持续提升外，2028年安全员成本相比2025年下降超过50%。另外，生成式AI及大语言模型在培训和推理方面激增的需求推动公司智能云业务快速增长。该机构续指，百度广告业务承压，AI高景气推动云业务快速增长，该机构下调公司业绩预测和目标价，整体2025-2027年营收分别同比增长-5.2/4.4/4.8%（前值-1.6/4.3/4.7%）至126,265/131,853/138,172（131,027/136,701/143,117）百万元；non-gaap净利润分别为19,741/22,037/24,033（22,620/23,862/24,898）百万元。该机构得出DCF估值结果下调公司目标价至95.15（96.35）港币，维持“买入”评级。

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