智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，老铺黄金(06181)将公布上半年业绩，料收入、净利润及经调整净利润将分别同比增2.65倍、2.85倍及2.96倍，各至129亿、23亿及24亿元人民币。将目标价由900港元升至980港元，此按现金流折现率作估值，相当于预测今明两年市盈率各33倍及25倍，维持“中性”评级，并将2025至2027年每股盈利预测上调25至35%。
展望下半年，该行认为市场对全年净利润55亿元人民币的预期仍然过高，若金价升势放缓或停滞，将面临下行风险。该行估算公司库存周转期为3个月，而由于1至4月金价上涨34%，而公司仅在2月时加价10%，料次季纯金产品毛利率会较首季下跌。为缓解毛利率压力，该行预期公司下半年可能采取更积极的加价策略，包括上调旧款产品价格及推出更多高溢价的新产品。若金价升势放缓，公司产品的性价比优势或逐步削弱，最终考验其产品与品牌的吸引力。
瑞银又料老铺黄金上半年及下半年分别开4间及5间新店，新店质量会较往年提升，并估计这些高端新店的产能可能是一般门店的的2至4倍，而开业促销折扣将进一步推动业绩。
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