A packed week of economic data across Asia will offer fresh insight into inflation, growth, and monetary policy direction.
Central banks appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach, with the People's Bank of China leaving its loan prime rates unchanged and the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes expected to shed light on its recent surprise hold.
Inflation figures will be in focus across several economies, including Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Japan.
Meanwhile, key growth indicators such as Taiwan's industrial production and South Korea's GDP print will help assess momentum across the region.
Markets will also be watching Flash PMI releases from Japan, India, and Australia for early signs of July activity.
Here's a day-by-day look at what's happening in Asia this week.
MONDAY, July 21
As expected, the People's Bank of China kept the one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.
"Although continued downward price pressures and sluggish loan demand present a solid case for further easing, the People's Bank of China may opt to hold off until a more opportune window. We continue to expect one more 10bp rate cut and 50bp reserve-requirement-ratio cut before year-end," ING Bank said in a note.
Meanwhile, consumer prices in Hong Kong rose 1.4% year-on-year in June, down from the 1.9% increase recorded in May, official data showed. The smaller increase was mainly due to a reduced impact from the government's electricity charges subsidy in June 2024 compared with May 2024.
After excluding the effects of all one-off government relief measures, the underlying inflation rate remained steady at 1.0% in June, unchanged from May.
TUESDAY, July 22
CommBank Research said the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's July Monetary Policy Board meeting, to be released Tuesday, will be closely scrutinized for insights into the board's thinking following the surprise decision to leave the cash rate on hold.
In the press conference after the decision, RBA Governor Michele Bullock made it clear that the board preferred to wait for the release of the quarterly CPI data before considering any further easing. She also emphasized that the issue was one of timing rather than direction.
One point of interest in the minutes will be the inclusion of voting patterns and any details on the discussion between members who favoured a rate cut versus those who supported holding steady, CBA said.
In Malaysia, the statistics department will release CPI data on Tuesday afternoon. Inflation is expected to ease slightly to 1.1% from 1.2% in May, driven by softer food and transport prices, according to ANZ economist Bansi Madhavani.
Taiwan's export orders, also due Tuesday, are expected to show further acceleration, with ING forecasting a 28.2% year-on-year increase for June. Exports have consistently outperformed expectations this year, reflecting strong external demand.
Also on the data calendar are South Korea's producer price index, New Zealand's trade figures, and Taiwan's unemployment rate.
WEDNESDAY, July 23
Singapore is set to release its June inflation data on Wednesday, with markets watching for any signs of easing price pressures.
Core inflation likely remained subdued, though it may have edged slightly higher, according to a note from Barclays. The bank expects a more pronounced increase in headline inflation, largely due to higher Certificate of Entitlement (COE) premiums for car ownership.
While the city-state does not have an explicit inflation target, it considers a core inflation rate just below 2% to be consistent with overall price stability, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Taiwan will also publish its industrial production and retail sales data on Wednesday.
Output has posted strong gains in recent months, rising more than 20% year-on-year in both April and May, supported by robust growth in the tech sector. ING expects the momentum to continue in June, with industrial production forecast to increase by around 26.8% year-on-year.
Other key data due midweek are Thailand's trade numbers and South Korea's consumer confidence report.
THURSDAY, July 24
South Korea's GDP print will offer an early look at how the economy performed in the April to June period. After contracting in the first quarter, a rebound is expected in the second quarter owing to monetary policy easing and government fiscal stimulus.
Flash purchasing managers' indexes for July are due for Japan, Australia and India, providing early signals on private sector activity across manufacturing and services in those markets.
FRIDAY, July 25
Government data due Friday is expected to show that inflation in Japan's capital remains above the central bank's 2% target.
Core consumer prices in the Tokyo area, excluding fresh food, are forecast to have risen 2.9% in July from a year earlier, easing from June's 3.1% increase, according to a Quick poll of economists.
Singapore's industrial production data is also due. Trading Economics forecasts a 7.3% year-over-year growth in June, a sharp jump from 3.9% in May.
SUNDAY, July 27
China will release data on industrial profits for the first half of the year, with markets watching for signs of a turnaround. In May, industrial profits fell 9.1%, ending a two-month growth streak.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.