花旗:贸易协议或提振日本央行加息预期

金融界
Jul 23, 2025

花旗研究市场策略师Tomohisa Fujiki在一份报告中称,美日贸易协定的达成可能促使市场提前计价日本央行加息。“随着贸易不确定性消退,该协议或为日本央行早于当前市场预期的加息铺平道路,”Fujiki表示。

根据隔夜指数互换市场定价,交易员目前预计日本央行在2025年底前再次加息的概率约为75%。Fujiki认为,若日本央行在下周政策会议上释放鹰派信号,这一概率可能进一步上升。考虑到潜在政治压力及5-10年期国债可能面临更大的财政风险溢价,投资者整体可能倾向于做陡收益率曲线。

责任编辑:栎树

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