The Daily Chase: Canada’s leaders meet on trade

Bloomberg
21 Jul

Here are five things you need to know this morning

Leaders mull tariff response: Canadian politicians are in the spotlight this week, as leaders continue to develop responses to trade actions by the United States. A three-day premiers meeting begins today in Ontario’s cottage country, with a meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney set for Tuesday. Most of what the premiers are likely to discuss stems from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs: trade negotiations, the direct impact on industries such as steel and aluminum, the increased push to remove interprovincial trade barriers and speed up major infrastructure and natural resource projects to counteract the effects of tariffs. Trump recently moved a deadline for a new trade agreement with Canada to Aug. 1, while telling Carney he intends to impose 35 per cent across-the-board tariffs on Canada that same day.

BoC rate cut unlikely: Expectations for further interest rate cuts this year from the Bank of Canada are slowly evaporating. As Erik Hertzberg of Bloomberg News notes, economists at two of Canada’s largest lenders, Bank of Nova Scotia and Royal Bank, now say Governor Tiff Macklem will keep the benchmark rate at 2.75 per cent through the end of 2025. Despite the impact of U.S. tariff uncertainty, growth appears to be holding up far better than the worst-case recessionary outcomes projected by economists earlier this year. Economists at Bank of Montreal and Toronto-Dominion Bank’s securities arm, on the other hand, still see at least one more rate cut this year.

CIBC tops Scotiabank: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has inched past Bank of Nova Scotia in market capitalization to become Canada’s fourth-most valuable bank, as investor sentiment shifts in favor of lenders with more exposure to the domestic market. As highlighted by Chaimae Chouiekh of Bloomberg News, CIBC has been the top-performing major Canadian bank over the past year, with its shares soaring 47 per cent, giving it a market value of $94.6 billion as of Friday’s close. It hadn’t outranked Scotiabank since the early 2000s, until this month. Scotiabank has been the worst performer of the group, with its shares rising 17 per cent over the past 12 months. That’s largely due to underwhelming earnings as the bank executes a long-term strategy of trying to shrink the capital it allocates to Latin America.

Verizon and Domino’s beat expectations: It will be a busy week for quarterly earnings reports from major companies such as CN Rail, Coca-Cola, General Motors, Rogers Communications, Tesla, Alphabet, Teck Resources and Loblaw. This morning two U.S. names are in the spotlight – Verizon and Domino’s. Shares of Verizon are trading higher in the premarket after the telecom company raised the lower end of its annual profit forecast. Second quarter revenue and profit topped expectations. Shares of Domino’s Pizza are also trading higher after surpassing analysts’ expectations for second-quarter U.S. same-store sales, driven by new items on the menu and promotions.

Tariffs hit Stellantis: Auto giant Stellantis expects a net loss of 2.3 billion euros in the first half of the year amid pre-tax net charges and early effects of U.S. tariffs. Stellantis, which owns household names including Jeep, Dodge, Fiat, Chrysler and Peugeot – and has production facilities here in Canada - said it expects an initial hit of 300 million euros in its first-half results due to tariffs, as well as planned production losses as part of its response plan.

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