智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，由于预期中国石油化工股份(00386)2025财政年度净利润将连续第五年下滑，因此对中石化维持“中性”评级，目标价由3.6港元升至4港元，并重申中国石油股份(00857)是石油股首选。
该行指，中石化公布上半年营运数据，上游产量符合预期，但下游精炼/生产/销售量仅相当于2025年指引的46%至49%。中石化将于8月24日公布上半年业绩，并于8月25日举行管理电话会议。该行预测第二季纯利为72亿人民币，每股派息9分人民币。小摩小幅下调中石化2025年每股盈利预测4%，以反映销量预测被下调，但上调2026至2027财年每股盈测各6%和3%，以反映APLNG合约重新谈判及化学品业务利润率略有改善的预期。
该行建议关注中石化在业绩后对“十五五”增长策略的论述;减少化工亏损的解决方案及“反内卷”的影响;参与宁德时代H股IPO的影响;以及APLNG合约重新谈判对盈利影响的论述。
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