With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 25.4x Brambles Limited (ASX:BXB) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Australia have P/E ratios under 19x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
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Recent times have been advantageous for Brambles as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Check out our latest analysis for Brambles
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Brambles' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 12% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 60% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the twelve analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 10% per year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 15% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it concerning that Brambles is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
Our examination of Brambles' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Brambles you should know about.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Brambles, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
Discover if Brambles might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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