It's been a mediocre week for Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$77.63 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$1.3b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.36, missing estimates by 6.6%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Selective Insurance Group after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Selective Insurance Group's five analysts is for revenues of US$5.33b in 2025. This would reflect an okay 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 16% to US$7.17. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.07 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Selective Insurance Group

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$90.00, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Selective Insurance Group analyst has a price target of US$97.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$79.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Selective Insurance Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Selective Insurance Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.5% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Selective Insurance Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$90.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Selective Insurance Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Selective Insurance Group's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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