金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指，借鉴上一轮不同行业出清经验，进一步讨论这一轮产能出清如何演绎。新能源方面，当前锂电、光伏产能利用率已至前低，其中锂电的潜在增量产能和产能利用率较光伏更早回落。目前两者的扩产意愿已接近10年以来0%分位、但现金能力仍在历史中位水平附近，后续行业或延续当前产能利用率较低水平波折运行。传统行业方面，这一轮上游资源品行业并未面临类似上一轮的供给严重过剩的困局，截至25Q1，当前钢铁、煤炭等传统行业的产能利用率均已接近19年低点，其中基础化工、钢铁已出现趋势性的现金能力改善的信号。
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