Bitwise CIO:加密货币四年周期已失效,未来将持续稳定繁荣

链捕手
25 Jul

ChainCatcher 消息,Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 在社交平台发文表示,加密货币四年周期已“失效”,未来将"持续稳定繁荣" ;

  • 创造此前四年周期的力量正在减弱:
  1. 每四年减半一次;
  2. 利率周期对加密货币来说是积极的,而不是消极的(就像 2018 年和 2022 年那样);
  3. 由于监管的完善和空间的制度化,爆炸风险得到降低;
  • 更大的力量正按照与四年周期不同步的时间线运行:
  1. 资产流入ETF是一个 5-10 年的趋势。这一趋势始于 2024 年;
  2. 更广泛的机构采用才刚刚开始(ETF 仍在国家账户平台上获得批准,养老金和捐赠基金刚刚考虑加密货币等)。
  3. 监管进程于 2025 年 1 月正式启动,并将持续数年;
  4. 华尔街才刚刚开始布局加密货币领域,并将在未来几个季度乃至几年内投入数十亿美元。这始于本月《天才法案》的通过。

Hougan 认为,长期利好加密货币的力量将压倒经典的"四年周期"力量,2026 年将是好年景,更像是"持续稳定繁荣"而非超级周期。

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