Clearwater Analytics研究主管Matthew Jeffrey Vegari表示,对关税引发物价增长复苏的预期,正重新引发人们对回归1970滞胀时代的恐惧,然而此类预测是错误的。滞胀通常兼具高通胀、经济低增长甚至停滞,以及高失业率的特征;虽然今明两年美国的经济增长可能受阻,但在普遍共识中,高失业率这一特征是缺失的。
美联储政策制定者在放缓过热经济的同时避免了使其陷入衰退,表现值得称道。我们真正应该担忧滞胀的时刻,是当美联储变得不那么独立或不再极度专注于物价稳定之时。或许未来会出现一段通胀和失业率同时上升的时期,但在这届美联储的任期内,情况不会像1970年代一样糟糕,高通胀也不会持续下去。
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